The San Bruno real estate market in 2026 is expected to move into a more balanced phase, offering opportunities for both buyers and sellers. After several years of volatility across the Bay Area, market conditions are projected to stabilize, with modest price growth, slightly improved affordability, and new residential developments adding limited but meaningful housing supply.
San Bruno’s appeal remains strong due to its proximity to San Francisco, Silicon Valley, and major transit hubs, keeping demand high even as the market normalizes.
General Market Expectations for 2026
Modest Price Appreciation
Home prices in San Bruno are projected to rise at a sustainable and moderate pace, avoiding both a sharp correction and an overheated surge. Statewide forecasts for California estimate median home prices increasing by approximately 3.5 to 4 percent in 2026, which aligns with expectations for well-located Peninsula cities like San Bruno. This level of appreciation reflects a return to more typical market behavior rather than speculative growth.
Improving Affordability
Affordability is expected to improve slightly in 2026. Wage growth is projected to continue outpacing inflation, while mortgage rates are forecast to gradually decline. Industry analysts expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to trend toward the low-6 percent range by late 2026, which could bring more buyers back into the market and support steady demand.
Increased Inventory and Sales Activity
Buyers may see more active listings compared to previous years as sellers re-enter the market under more favorable financing conditions. While inventory will remain constrained relative to demand, this increase could give buyers slightly more negotiating power and help lift overall sales activity across San Mateo County.
New Developments in San Bruno
New construction in San Bruno will play an important role in shaping the 2026 market, particularly for buyers seeking modern, move-in-ready homes.
Toll Brothers Single-Family Community
One of the most notable developments is a Toll Brothers project on San Bruno’s west side, planned to deliver 155 single-family homes, including 24 below-market-rate units. The first phase of 12 homes is expected to be completed in late 2026, adding rare new single-family inventory to a supply-constrained market.
Transit-Oriented Residential Projects
San Bruno continues to prioritize transit-oriented development, with projects proposed near major transportation corridors. A planned 42-unit mixed-use development at 170 San Bruno Avenue aims to add both residential units and commercial space close to the city’s transit center, supporting walkability and commuter convenience.
Large-Scale Long-Term Plans
Approved master plans such as the Bayhill Specific Plan, which allows for up to 573 housing units over approximately 20 years, and the Tanforan redevelopment, with plans exceeding 1,000 residential units, signal long-term growth. However, most of these projects will have a limited direct impact in 2026, with their full influence expected in later years.
Impact of New Developments on the Market
The limited number of new homes expected to be delivered in 2026 will help slightly ease inventory constraints, but it will not fully meet the region’s pent-up demand. New units are likely to be absorbed quickly, particularly since San Bruno buyers tend to favor new construction and move-in-ready properties.
Overall, new developments will contribute to market stability rather than oversupply, reinforcing San Bruno’s reputation as a competitive but increasingly predictable housing market.
Key Takeaway
The San Bruno real estate market in 2026 is expected to reflect stability, modest price growth, and measured expansion through new developments. While new housing projects will add much-needed supply, demand is likely to remain strong due to San Bruno’s location, transit access, and limited overall inventory. Buyers may benefit from slightly improved affordability and more options, while sellers can expect continued competition and healthy long-term value.